Rasmussen (10/21, likely voters, 9/29 in parens):
Rick Noriega (D): 40 (43)
John Cornyn (R-inc): 55 (50)
Undecided: 5 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Blink and you’d have missed it: We actually briefly changed our rating on this race to Likely R, thinking that an upset could not strictly be ruled out. But we didn’t even have time to write it up before this poll came out – and before we learned about private polling which shows things even worse for Rick Noriega.
Let’s face it: Three-and-a-half million or so raised is just never gonna cut it in Texas, especially not when Cornyn’s raised over $18 mil. What’s more, the DSCC isn’t going to play here, and without their involvement, beating an incumbent senator is just about impossible. The good news, though, is that Texas is trending bluer, and we not only have several opportunities further down the ballot this year, we’ll have many more in the future as well.
But you can’t win them all. But still, finally putting this and Maine aside, there are still eleven, yes 11, legit shots at Republican seats. Amazing.
And Ras has better news from NH. Shaheen up 52-46.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
the long term trends in TX bode well for Democrats but the state needs substantial and sustained political investment. Case in point, while Obama may not win GA, he and other dems are benefiting greatly from well spent dollars and near unanimous block voting by blacks who have registered to vote in large numbers.
TX Dems should be reaping the same benefits since Latinos are a larger proportion of the TX electorate than blacks are in GA. Unfortunately, they are not as politically organized as blacks. If Noriega can pull 90+% of Latinos and 80% of blacks with 20-30% of Anglos, he will win. The TX GOP is basically the white male party and they are an ever shrinking proportion of the electorate; yet they win because of weak political organization of latinos and generic democrats. Dallas County and Harris County are about to go 100% blue on the local level, yet Cornyn is still going to win both. Hopefully, President Obama will focus on TX the way President Clinton nutured CA in the 1990s.
I had hoped the TX primaries would change things, but it seems like we are back to where we were in the 1990s. What a shame!!!